‘Where have you been?’ Well sorry things a little hectic at home with the new baby likely to make an appearance in a month!
The cricket season is hotting up, the big bash starts, BPL and as I speak England have started well out in the hot 3rd test.
The draw option gives us an extra market to consider. Some traders only trade this market, but I think that’s wrong as the other 2 are always connected; the 3 have to be evaluated together and can be profited from.
I advised this to a client who I programmed some automation from earlier in the year. This was for small field horse racing markets, so we adapted that for cricket.
We targeted a scenario where two markets behave in unison against the third, causing it to move. By working out the average number of runs scored per session and time remaining we found scenarios where this might occur.
the big bash has seen some big first innings scores, around 20% higher than the average 1st innings mean. ill be cross referencing data from prwvious years, remember groundstaff and instructions given to them change match to match and season by season – not all grounds remain the same size too!
Batting aggression is often lazily thrown at this argument but in reality the truth is often more subtle than that when you add the match ups inti the equation. as a starting point however, ground trends cannot be ignored.
have a fantastic new year and thanks for your support with the blog.