Don’t know why but it sometimes gets my goat when you see us gamblers borrow terminology like this from the financial world. Not because it isn’t true but to the majority, it has no effect. If a market is so thin that you can’t get a £200 stake on at a certain point, then bide your time.

I borrowed some automation from the T20 I’ve been using for NFL this evening and it did seem to have effect, however. All my automation works on several conditions, one which is the relation between current price and whether a bet is placed.

I can divided this down to back price, lay price or last traded price. It might seem trivial but is relevant on whether you get matched or not. A thin market may have significant gaps, so when you choose to back when lay price >1.7, your can miss the boat. Your back bet is actually an offset +10 ticks, the market bounces back and you hold a position opposite to which you originally intended.

Backing when back price >1.7 holds a better chance of being met, adding last traded price >1.7 is better and altering the back price to a few ticks lower increase your chances of being met even further. Naturally the opposite applies to lay rules.

I spoke to a high volume trader  recently who spoke of ‘flow of money’ – the amount of cash coming in and out of the market according to time. It perhaps has more relevance that general volume figures, and he places value upon this figure when entering a market.

Liquidity is an important figure to consider when deciding your stake, automation type and market movements but it’s not the be all and end all.





MCG pitch Stars/Renegades

Its derby day, the clash of the Melbourne Stars and Renegades teams. I’ll be attempting some analysis/preview from a ground perspective, hopefully it can give you another angle to consider.

I’d like to start by looking at what has been happing in Melbourne general. Specifically, there was a record chase at the Etihad on the 23rd and the most recent encounter between the Renegades and Scorchers on the 30th saw a run chase for the loss of no wickets, a first for the BBL.

A lot was made of the bowling, and it is a drop in pitch so what relevance will it play this evening at the MCG?

Well we are in the same city for a start. Secondly, I place relevance on two comments from players stating the pitch was easier to bat on than expected. The latter comment added the dew factor played a role.

Looking at the forecast for tonight in Melbourne, the wind speed is likely to be 10kmh less and humidity 10% lower, suggesting it may not be as much of a factor.

The dew factor should certainly be considered. We can see another good chase which happened on the 20th when the Thunder chased down 177 at the MCG to win.

In all BBL matches, the MCG has the lowest win % of teams batting first.  I won’t be underestimating the side chasing.