Some nice Sunny weather to absorb this week in Indian Wells. The courts have got plenty of bite in them and really benefit those who are prepared to grind it out in the sun.
I mentioned a while back about trading vs. straight betting in these match odds markets. A solid theory you can retain easily is the 20 tick margin. Lets have a look at the maths in a hypothetical situation.
Backing 2.0, laying 1.8 for the same stake returns 20% of stake on the favourite. It can be greened for 1% each side.
Looking at tonights match Haase vs. Schwartzman, the same 20 tick range might swing Schwartzman 15-30 down on serve. I’m not advocating this as an entry position, nor would you take a 20 tick range and try and shoe-horn that into a match scenario. My entry may be 15-30, exit end of game netting maybe 15 ticks.
Good mens servers often get themselves out of jail on fast courts, the smaller swings reflect their superior serving ability compared to worse servers. However, i may chose to back a good server behind when serving and over the course of 5 sets, x5 20 tick swings using £10 stakes will leave me with £20 on the favourite and -£10 on the opponent.
You can expand on this by reversing the trade, rather than waiting for the price to return to the original entry point. A conservative approach would be to simple green the trade.
I’m a bit advocate of turnover and making my profit work hard to generate more, or at least give myself the opportunity to win bigger, as they say. Translated to betting terms, had I stayed static in the market I would have place an even money bet, using the example above we have a 2/1 opportunity.
I’ll hopefully touch on this a little more, of course if anyone follows a similar approach or has any comments it would be great to hear.