Thought id expand on the last blog to see where the 20 tick concept could be extended to. I’ve just seen a post from a popular social media punter hailing a lay the field success.
Horse racing is an absolute killer when it comes to automation; prices move so quickly in running that most computers have an edge over human input; speed.
I don’t know whether it will work, but am typing live and hopefully explain my thought process to bot creation. Firstly, i’ll always set out my aims – here it is to reduce liability.
So, lets look at the math behind the straight lay of 3 horses and the liability/profit.
Lay x3 horses at 1.61. The worst case scenario is a) 1 horse hits and goes on to win. We lose £6.10 for every £10 invested. If two hit (b), and one goes on to win, thats £3.90 profit.If three hit and one goes on to win, £13.90. If three hit (c)and none win, the maximum return £30.
Lets check out how scenario B could unfold. The favourite hits 1.61 in running, at which point we could potentially time-map the price of the second favourite. This gives us our range in which to trade. I’ll call it 2.0, for arguments sake lets say a 40 tick range.
We know 20 ticks brings £2, so 40 will bring £4. If matched we can re-back at 2.0 for £14. That is our trading cycle for the horse. Each repetition increases ability to compound profits. How often do you see the price move and not be quick enough to act?
That’s something simple you can automate, next blog I’ll assess the pro’s of this vs a straight lay and give the number of cycles required to beat that method.