Well, we are veering away from Tennis, but to keep the series linked I am carrying on looking at the lay the field automation.
To recap, having laid 1.61 and re-backed at 2.0 with our profit (£24 back bet), we are into the second cycle. To complete this we, green back at 1.61 for £5.82. Our two lays and single back have returned 50% of our stake. At no point has our liability exceeded £10 (the original stake).
Of course, I am presuming a) there is another horse in hot contention. A strong favourite with no competition in the race may not cause the odds to return to 2.0. This can in fact be an opportunity.
A horse trading around 1.6 suggests, in the right environment there may be a second favourite trading around even money. We can start the cycle backing at 2.0, laying 1.61 and then greening at 2.0. The 2 horses flip flop between the two prices and I can maximise my position, effectively doubling my return to £11.64.
The best thing about this method is the speed it happens can be lightening fast. The range can be expanded to suit certain circumstances, the cycles can be extended. In fact, this is something I actively pursue as it is compounding earned profit.
I’l compare this to the original lay the field strategy, laying multiple horses once:
Lay x3 horses at 1.61. The worst case scenario is a) 1 horse hits and goes on to win. We lose £6.10 for every £10 invested. If two hit (b), and one goes on to win, thats £3.90 profit.If three hit and one goes on to win, £13.90. If three hit (c)and none win, the maximum return £30.
For this strategy to surpass what i’ve already discussed will need 3 horses to hit 1.6. It is a simplfied and traditional method, in my opinion not too dis-similar to the outdated lay the draw strategy. We now make a value judgement on the strategies, so return to the real world with two scenarios which return similar amounts.
To tie up this section of the blog, I may look to the simple built in software in bet angel to construct something akin to high frequency trading albeit in the horse racing markets.