Punchestown

A shorter blog before the bank holiday period, a bit frustrating on a blogging level as several subject raised in previous weeks I felt I’ve failed to bring to a close. My last topic was creating a trading calculator in excel, which has proved great in creating something taking advantage of the wild prices close to the finish in horse racing. Work to be done, in fact I’ve enlisted the help of a friend who teaches maths to speed up the progress.

A quick market mention of the 15:40 at Punchestown, Shin a Vee the winner, price came in 3/1 – 2/1 SP, i spotted support in running 2.3 and 2.7. Support is a word banded about quite a bit in trading circles, how to define it?

Well you have to relate it to time, essentially the time it takes for a price to break through that support level. We can take an estimated guess at the factors creating this:

  1. Price of other runners – their position in the race and in running observation of running style.
  2. Over-reaction in price of selection. Can assume another horse will challenge if time left in race
  3. Horse getting gambled in!

I’ll draw a correlation in this race between race distance (time elapsed in race) and the support price. At 90 seconds into a 6 furlong race you’ll see much more volatility than this 2m4, so at this point in time we could be in a safer trading zone.

Second factor to consider is price of closest rivals, should they be close to the price of horse we are about to lay, then that will help for the market to move in the direction we want to.

Jumping back to the 90 seconds, I’ll refer to a price historically so if it has not gone above 10 ticks in the last 20 seconds and the second and third favourites are within a defined price then a lay can be considered as a trade. 

Things move fast in-running, often too fast for the human eye which is why automation works so well with horse racing. However judging at which point market volatility is low is trickier, but matched with running styles it’s possible to create a bank of suitable automation to pull up and apply to certain race lengths.

Probably worth mentioning that Shin a Vee was backed by Ruby Walsh’s wife on course, so hopefully enough fuel in this weeks post for someone to create a ‘Ruby rule’ for the future!

Enjoy the bank holiday!

 

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A prequel.

As is the fashion these days, i applied a bit of reverse engineering and decided to blog what i perhaps should have done before my previous post on betting turnover.

For what i do, turn-over is vital, what do i mean? A back bet 2.0 for £100, greening at 1.8 will bring 10% approx each side. I can re-enter that trade at 2.0, choosing to keep my liability the same, or play it safe and just re-invest profits.

It’s quite a complex series of bets, if you decide to maximise the return.

I calculated the idea scenario would be to back for chosen stake, lay at target price, put profit on outsider.

Then repeat trade, choosing to use just profit, or profit plus initial stake.

Sounds good, we will never lose more than the initial liability. I decided to create some sort of calculation thing in excel this week which I’ve posted. I’ve been pretty tired this week but my aim with projects like this when under the weather is to concentrate less on the accuracy but put as much of the design in place as possible. At least i can see what i attempted, re-calculate some of the math – most of the groundwork is there.

Thankfully i have a equine friend who also teaches maths who i hope will benefit from it, and with any luck, correct my tired math calculations. 🙂

Best of luck in the markets, with whatever you do 🙂

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Herman takes the Shell

A great win for Jim Herman in the golf. As happens with warm up events to big tournaments (next one is the masters), some major players treat it as a tune up. 

Others out of form will use it to try and turn the tide, not too dissimilar to a student cramming last minute for an exam!

The value obviously lay with Herman, matched over 500/1, from the start. The marquee names traded too short, often their names alone cause this to happen.

I was on a couple who traded below 10.0, my strategy is to free roll on these as a free bet. I applied a simple lay rule which takes on tennis players who start at 2.0 and this took on the favourites as they emerged.

The danger here is one from the pack who  trains to win, so traits you need are players out of form, difficult conditions, tricky pin positions and an event which proceeds a major competition.  

World Cup t20

What a fantastic tournament it’s been, not only the fantastic performances but nice to see the smaller nations compete on an even keel.

Aussie women traded around 1.09 and lost, I see a few usual suspects laid this price, in fact it seems a common strategy to back an initial wrong call and ‘double down’. 

To me that’s a clear sign of having no exit strategy on the initial trade, if the plan was always to split stake between prices as they decrease then fair enough. 

I’ll continue this thought process. If you aren’t certain enough to stake full on the opening lay, then you can’t be certain the price will rise before it drops. 

To me that makes no sense and it’s a sign of separately digging out of a hole, one which I have entered on more than one occasion!

In retrospect 1.09 will get talked about, I am not as optimistic about these prices as some. You need a significant amount of time left in the game for it to turn around, and there has  have been a significant error of judgement by the masses. 

In this instance, Australia were dominant in the h2h, for me the pitch played much better that estimated and some power hitting by the WI raised the price. 

You can apply some technical analysis in this situation, make a note of the volume before the price hits, look at the amounts getting matched. More importantly I’d look for some good resistance for a significant time. The market will often hold expecting another wicket

I often like to wait until I see this resistance even if it means laying a tick or so higher, you aren’t trying to catch the falling dagger.

To automate I am a big fan of historical price analysis, if you can do it then volume matched is great too particularly in thin’ish markets.

 Don’t be greedy, I always think of ROI on a trade which is great way of building profit, holding on to reach a target amount above your exit often ends in pain. 

Seeng your profit rise +£30, +£60, +£75 etc is the way to go, slowly building profit rather than holding onto to your initial red figure. Build your inning like those West Indian batsman and reap the rewards.