Punchestown

A shorter blog before the bank holiday period, a bit frustrating on a blogging level as several subject raised in previous weeks I felt I’ve failed to bring to a close. My last topic was creating a trading calculator in excel, which has proved great in creating something taking advantage of the wild prices close to the finish in horse racing. Work to be done, in fact I’ve enlisted the help of a friend who teaches maths to speed up the progress.

A quick market mention of the 15:40 at Punchestown, Shin a Vee the winner, price came in 3/1 – 2/1 SP, i spotted support in running 2.3 and 2.7. Support is a word banded about quite a bit in trading circles, how to define it?

Well you have to relate it to time, essentially the time it takes for a price to break through that support level. We can take an estimated guess at the factors creating this:

  1. Price of other runners – their position in the race and in running observation of running style.
  2. Over-reaction in price of selection. Can assume another horse will challenge if time left in race
  3. Horse getting gambled in!

I’ll draw a correlation in this race between race distance (time elapsed in race) and the support price. At 90 seconds into a 6 furlong race you’ll see much more volatility than this 2m4, so at this point in time we could be in a safer trading zone.

Second factor to consider is price of closest rivals, should they be close to the price of horse we are about to lay, then that will help for the market to move in the direction we want to.

Jumping back to the 90 seconds, I’ll refer to a price historically so if it has not gone above 10 ticks in the last 20 seconds and the second and third favourites are within a defined price then a lay can be considered as a trade. 

Things move fast in-running, often too fast for the human eye which is why automation works so well with horse racing. However judging at which point market volatility is low is trickier, but matched with running styles it’s possible to create a bank of suitable automation to pull up and apply to certain race lengths.

Probably worth mentioning that Shin a Vee was backed by Ruby Walsh’s wife on course, so hopefully enough fuel in this weeks post for someone to create a ‘Ruby rule’ for the future!

Enjoy the bank holiday!

 

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