An aim for me with this blog was to increase my interaction with like-minded traders. I wouldn’t say that has been a resounding success, but I do get the odd interesting (and sometimes far-fetched) line of enquiry. Like this weeks:
Mr X: I am new to trading and want to make £10k.
Me: How much do you want to stake?
I ignored this email for a while, but it began to eat away at me over the course of last week. Often the starting point for those wishing to write bot’s is from a sporting angle, with which they hope to find an edge. Approaching from a purely financial angle was something i hadn’t done in a while.
I opened my spreadsheet and it actually surprised me how simple this could be done. It actually took £15 instead of £10 stake. It’s a 2 trade automation.
Back selection A: £15 @10.0
Lay selection A: £1355 @1.1
Back selection A: £1355 @10.0
Green @ 1.1 for £10801
Ok so, it 4 trades if you do it manually and you can probably find my calculations out a couple of quid (i altered my commision rate on the sheet and it went a bit funny), but the principle is there.
We went on to discuss the likelihood of this happening, i explained you needed this to hit approximately once every 2 years to break even. My conclusion that although possible, it’d be tricky for a novice to retain the temperament and the will to be able to carefully pick scenarios where this might hit, 18 months into the program.
We’ll see where we go, my guess is the margins and bet frequency will be lowered to give a higher strike rate, returning a more realistic profit. And of course mr X will need to pick his chosen sport – we’ll see how it goes!