Bet analysis

I’ve been working a new project last few weeks which doesn’t involve betting. I’ve always been open to help other in the betting world so it made sense to offer some detailed analysis and consultancy. I wanted to provide something relevant to the person I was helping, rather than the general advice handed to novices going in one ear and out the other.

For one client, I took a months work of results (blue) and matched them against a model (green). Here it is – 181 horse racing bets for the calendar month of August.

1-month-difference

You’ll see the individual under-performed against a losing model (for this month). The yellow line is particularly important as that shows the difference between the model and actual results. The fact the system under-performed this month is not relevant to me, the difference in yellow is.

I haven’t fully analysed the reasons for the difference, but thought I’d share the level I think you need to go to, to analyse where bettors are going right, and wrong. Its too easy just to keep on trading without giving enough time to review performance and fine tune methods to become more profitable.

For system bettors amongst you, its great to see how you compare to a system with positive expectancy, the aim would be to mirror it as closely as possible. For more flexible traders, I have encouraged regular notes that accompany trades with financial input coming from limits of risk per trade and sometimes a target profit per trade if the system is rigid enough and suits that punters risk profile.

I’ll put up analysis of the graph above next time, and suggest some pointers going forward to drag that difference from the negative into the positive.

 

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