Bet analysis part 2

So this is the follow up post to: https://lebotman.wordpress.com/2016/09/19/bet-analysis/ 

A bit more background on this project. It’s a tipping service who the client pays for and the stakes he used justified further analysis. 

Lets get stuck in. I will be frank and put it out there that lots of tipsters with a slim profit margin put up unrealistic prices which a bettor who is limited by bookmakers, cannot profit from. 

Take another look at the graph and the spikes are where a bet is successful. At these points the difference in profit between his and the model was mixed. 

Not shown on he graph were whether the selections were each way or to win. The each way bets produced a difference in favour of the bettor. He was using the exchange which paid less places but offered a higher price. There were no selections which benefitted for he extra place in the data I was given. I suggest long term it might. 

His each way staking was also different to the model, for 1u each way he was staking 2u where as the model staked 1u in total. His staking was biased toward the each way selections which would is not true to the overall staking in the model.

We have a slump around bet 42, this was a missed winning bet.

I highlighted a trend around bets 102-115 which was interesting and could refer to what I mentioned about unrealistic pricing. This was a sequence of winning trades yet the difference decreased. 

So my recommendations were as follows:

1) correct the each way staking and continue to monitor whether the extra bookmaker place (where advised) benefits longer term.

2) be consistent in following selections 

With these addressed and with a bigger data set we could see if the difference is still negative. One strategy I use is to look at the difference % long term and retrieve that difference in asking for a higher price in running. 

In running price analysis is something I would apply to this data if there were over 3 months and then filter based on race type. 

I will leave it there but that is a snippet of what I do. If you are busy punter or tipster and like what you see do get in touch. It is quite time consuming so I don’t do a lot of it. 

Should this particular project continue I will update should it be of interest.

Appreciate this is the unsexy realm of punting, but it’s important – well done if you got this far!!


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