Time.

I have been running a bot on tennis for a while now, probably started 4/5 years ago and has developed since. I’ve assessed its performance in ROI and it’s done pretty well, like all automation I develop i try and look at it from a new angle.

Here’s how it performed this week, a WTA match in Japan, i think the semi-final:

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Pretty good, 25 or so successful trades and i achieved what i wanted to achieve with it during the match. Here’s how it began:

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and ended:

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Here’s the second match, B which achieved the same profit:

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It started like this:

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And ended here:

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We have 2 major variables I look at, number of triggers (bet placed) met and time the bot ran for. Match B had less triggers which might tell me I was exposed for a greater amount during the match. It makes sense because the bot ran for 1hr 20 mins less time than the first match.

Exposure and time are the 2 most important pieces of data I look at. The first match took almost twice as long to hit the same profit amount than match B.

It got me thinking about other markets. Take horse racing, you create a back to lay rule, how often do you aim for a target price? and how has this come about over the years? Obviously we have a fixed amount in our minds which we want to achieve.

Back to lay is so popular these days, I see more and more punters looking to take their cut at 80% of the target price, dog eat dog it might move to 85% and so on until the price become back-able.

Relating back to the tennis, i often grade a successful trade based on the time spent in the market. It has to be your number 1 aim to be in and out of the market as soon as possible and to achieve that automation can help.

Look back to some previous blog and I like to talk about multiple trades reducing liability for further trades and it’s something that can be implemented perfectly what with the National Hunt season round the corner.

It is competitive however, as the races are run at a slower pace than the flat there is more time to decide what to do. Of course this means more thinking time for the on-course traders and those with a better knowledge of jumping/running style than you.

It is tough, but I will be keeping an eye on the early money left on the ladders to lay, chances are it won’t move and I can take advantage. I will be logging my trade times this season, based on furlong length along with liquidity in running and volume pre-race to see where I stand at the end.

To conclude, one simple piece of advice I will be following is to keep an eye on liquidity in running, the days of getting ahead of the market above a whole number on the ladders are gone, be flexible and if the price isn’t moving consider the time your money has been at risk for and decide if it’s worth it. Good luck, i might need a slice too!

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